GT has been seeking the views of many senior figures about the current developments in Georgia. What will happen next? Here we interview Merab Pachulia, Director of GORBI Gallup International, who is obviously following events closely.

Q: The opposition’s demonstrations have entered their 4th week but the number of demonstrators keeps falling. Why do you think this is?

A: On the one hand, the opposition did not tell their supporters, or the general public, what they would do exactly if they came to power. They are saying, “let’s get rid of Misha first, celebrate and say good riddance, and then we will figure it out what to do next.” They want us to believe that they will then be able sort out our future direction, and more importantly, decide who will stand for the office of President. However, all attention is now focused on getting rid of the current one.

It would be more pragmatic for the opposition to identify at least two or three politicians who are now standing together and can demonstrate that they can forget previous conflicts between them, and openly declare that they have an actual goal of working together to bring about new and fair Presidential elections. That would be a giant step forward. However, as things stand now there is still great confusion and backbiting. There are also allegations that some of those in the opposition are really in the camp of the Government and have their own agendas for when the dust settles.

It is if the opposition succeeds when the real power struggle might start. Leaving aside the predictions of pundits, things may get even more complicated when/if they [the opposition] get what they really want. The problem will be finding who among them has the least tainted history and can actually represent a new direction for the country. Naturally a direction is based on a sound political platform and not rhetoric. More is needed than “Misha must go and then we will decide what to do.”

Aside from this lack of opposition direction, the Government has done much to prevent people from joining the rallies. A variety of methods have been used to keep the numbers down. However, there is one golden rule – no dead bodies.

Q: Popular opinion here says that the opposition has failed to mobilize the masses, as even on April 9 fewer people turned out than expected. Has the opposition overestimated its support or underestimated Saakashvili’s popularity?

A: Ever since November 7, 2008, when the Georgian regime brutally broke up a peaceful demonstration with wooden clubs, rubber bullets and water cannon, Saakashvili’s popularity has melted like the polar ice caps. Two interim elections and the war with Russia over South Ossetia have also added to the freefall of his political standing. However, on a national level he still enjoys popular support, especially in the regions, much more than former President Eduard Shevardnadze had in 2003. Although Saakashvili may be losing supporters this tendency is not being translated directly into gains for the opposition. It is clear that all sides are made of the same cloth and one is just as bad as the other, as they were all schooled in the same methods.

The lack of clarity in the political future and direction they are offering is the burden that the opposition must overcome if they want to come to power. And protesting will not be an easy game to play, unless Saakashvili makes some grave mistake. Frankly speaking, all the mistakes that Saakshvili has made thus far have been of his own doing – and none can be attributed to having been put into a bad position by the opposition. In short, he is his own worst enemy and the vocal opposition does more to distract from real problems than focus attention on actual solutions.

Q: Some snap opinion polls (like the ones on gamokitxva.ge, weekly ones conducted by the Kviris Palitra newspaper), as well as more professionally conducted ones like the one by IRI, suggest that people are not happy with the ongoing situation in Georgia. Why do you think these public grievances have not been translated into mass demonstrations?

A: I cannot comment on Kviris Palitra or gamokitxva.ge polls because they are not scientifically based. As for the IRI polls, I know from a professional perspective that they are traditionally not inclusive of data that is accessible to the general public in terms of political parties and the ratings of the leadership. However, as can be seen from their last published survey findings, (a survey conducted in February 2009), the public mood is significantly depressed. The Georgian people tend to be less supportive of the current Government. This conclusion is quite in line with GORBI’s own survey data as well. However, to be depressed and anti-Government does not necessarily mean to be ready to join rallies with the opposition.  

This is especially the case when you see political leaders who were just recently “genetic” rivals now standing next to each other as “clones” on the stage on Rustaveli Avenue. I will repeat again, if the opposition adopt a more pragmatic approach, if they openly nominate a slate of future Presidential candidates, thing will go a bit easier for them. We are in a political war and we know that if Saakashvili resigns there will be an even harsher political fight and even more repression. This much-anticipated political war will be worse than current one, and everyone wants to have a predictable future in these politically and economically turbulent times. 

Q: Were people’s reactions to and participation in the opposition rally somewhat predictable?

A: Indeed they were, and the main two contributing factors to this were the lost war (though not everybody believes that we lost the war!) and the aggravation of the overall economic situation. Among other “minor” factors I would name the continued isolation of Georgia from the West, which has also grown tired of all the rhetoric and false promises of a bright future. Naturally, we still enjoy great financial and technical support from the West. However, things have changed greatly since August 2008, and the business we do with the West now only goes as far as solving problems with Russian occupation and the West performing a balancing act between larger geopolitical interests and supporting Georgia no matter what. On a personal level I believe that normal ties with the West will be restored in the not-too-distant future. After all, we Georgians do not have any way back, behind us are burned bridges with Russia due to its militaristic Government and a top leadership which cannot digest the fact that one day Georgia will be part of the civilized world.

Q: What happens if an agreement between the opposition and Government is not reached?

A: In Georgia over the last decade a number of scheduled and preterm elections have been held. Even with all the monitors who have observed them and the vast sums spent, not to mention a heap of good intentions, these have not been enough to establish a good political culture and set the process of real democracy in motion. There are many reasons for this, principally old habits, lack of political will and overall indifference. Georgians still lack some basic political fundamentals, such as politicians who can talk to people rather than talking at them, or as politicians have tended to say in recent times, show the ability to express a culture of dialogue. The result is that all sides are to blame and Georgia has the democracy it deserves, and the lack of accountability of the political establishment to the people will have long-term consequences. An equal measure of blame can be placed on the opposition and populace for this, as they have focused too much on personalities and not enough on real issues.  

History will be a harsh judge of the many opportunities that Georgia and its Government have squandered, not to mention the millions spent on window dressing, the loss of political support among many in the international community, and how it has effectively placed many barriers in the way of democracy, civil society and all the good things that Georgia and its fledgling democracy are supposed to stand for.

Let’s assume the worst case scenario, in which there isn’t any agreement between the opposition and Government to hold productive dialogue and compromise. Even if the current demonstrations run out of steam the current Government is still sitting on a ticking time bomb because of the worsening economic situation in Georgia, not to mention the independent European investigation of the actual events of the August war. It is a matter of time (a few months at the most) before things come to a head and a wide spectrum of Georgian society will turn out en masse to demand a change in the Government starting from the top.

There are still several options available which fall short of the full resignation of Saakashvili. For example, it would be possible to hold early Parliamentary elections this year and then schedule snap Presidential elections for 2010. This would provide a cooling down period for all sides and give one last opportunity to implement structural changes in the election code and set up a real system of checks and balances for holding free and fair elections. Naturally this would include loosening the noose around the Georgian media and allowing it to function as it would in any democratic society.