The Central Election Commission of the self-declared Republic of Abkhazia has finished accepting applications for candidatures at its Presidential elections. Chairman of the Central Election Commission Batal Tabagua says that the following persons have made applications to stand: current ‘President’ Sergey Bagapsh, former ‘Vice-President’ Raul Khajimba, Chair of Abkhazia’s Economic Development Party and businessman Beslan Butba, Doctor of Philosophy and Economics Vitali Bganba and Director of the state-owned Abkhazian Shipping Company Zaur Ardzinba.

Zaur Ardzinba was the last candidate to declare himself. Bagapsh and Butba were nominated by political parties and the other three by interest groups. The candidates will be registered officially on 12 November, by which date they must present a document containing 1,000 signatures of people supporting their candidature.

Jamalik Aiba, another businessman, also applied to be a candidate but in the end withdrew his nomination. It is assumed that at least three of the candidates, Sergey Bagapsh, Raul Khajimba and Beslan Butba, have serious support and a second round may have to be held to determine the winner.

Current de facto President Sergey Bagapsh was nominated by United Abkhazia at a congress in the Russian Drama theatre in Abkhazia, which is located in front of popular coffee house U Akopa. The President of the United Abkhazia Party, Daur Tarba, opened the meeting by reading a statement about “Bagapsh’s service to the Abkhazian people”, which took 20 minutes. Party members remarked that “as a result of Bagapsh’s wise politics we have managed to regain Kodori Gorge.” He had also managed to launch economic development together with de facto Prime Minister Alexandre Ankvaba.

Bagapsh and Alexandre Ankvaba will be running in tandem. If Bagapsh wins he will appoint Anklvaba Vice President, but who would be Prime Minister in such a case is still unknown. It is not excluded that the head of the Government will offer this post to Sergey Shamba.

According to unofficial information Sergey Shamba had also intended to become ‘President’, but Abkhazia’s patrons in the Kremlin did not advise him to do this. Instead they offered to ensure he is ‘Foreign Minister’ regardless of who wins the Presidential election. It is clear he agreed.

Local analysts and commentators say that Sergey Bagapsh has a great chance of winning, if not on the first ballot certainly on the second. It does look that way now, but what will happen between now and 12 December no one knows. The situation changes every day in Abkhazia, so the self-declared republic is watching this space.

Raul Khajimba’s team has been very active and began preparing for the elections a long time before they were called, at the end of May. In September, at the third congress of the Arua social movement of veterans of the Abkhazian war, he announced that he would do his best to make changes in the electoral law. He has in fact already done so, as on his categorical demand only citizens of Abkhazia are being allowed to run for President.

“The only document which should allow people to participate in the elections is the passport of Abkhazia,” declared Khajimba. He explained that in this way it will be easier to control who votes. Also following his demand voters will be marked on their hands and a specific entry will be made in voters’ passports.

Analysts consider that Khajimba’s initiative will disadvantage Bagapsh to a degree, because giving Abkhazian passports to the inhabitants of the Gali region has been stopped. Only about 3,500 inhabitants of Gali, where mainly Georgians live, have these passports. Khajimba reckons that Bagapsh won the December- January 2004-2005 elections due to support from the Gali region. 86% of 14,000 electors from Gali supported him then.

Inal Khashigi, an Abkhazian analyst, says that Gali will vote for Bagapsh this time too but the situation is different now. “It is without doubt that the change in the law will play against Bagapsh,” he says. However Bagapsh’s representative in Gali Ruslan Kishmaria considers that the change will not have a significant influence on the final results.

Raul Khajimba also hopes that another candidate, Zaur Ardzinba, will ultimately support him. It is not excluded that he will withdraw his candidacy at the last moment and call on his supporters to rally behind Khajimba. Ardzinba has no financial problems and will be able to give money to the Khajimba campaign.

Bagapsh’s other serious competitor is Beslan Butba, who seeks to united those voters opposed to the current President behind him. Butba also has no difficulty raising finance. He owns several restaurants and the Abaza TV station. Three of the candidates are backed by serious business structures and hope to have quite a solid budget.

Despite these challengers almost all analysts believe that Bagapsh has advantages and will win in the first round. But if another round is needed the situation will be more difficult.

“Without doubt Bagapsh will be top of the poll in the first round but I am sure he will not get enough votes to win. If the situation worsens before the second round is held the opposition will have a common candidate and in this case it is difficult to predict what will happen,” says Inal Khashig. Let us wait and see how things will proceed.