Will France succeed in selling Russia its Mistral-class vessel, also called in the French military lexicon “Bâtiment de projection et de commandement (BPC)?” If it does, it would be the first time in Russia’s modern history that it has purchased from abroad major military hardware and technology.

Both countries have been holding talks since Paris gave the green light for negotiation in October. Last Friday, while Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was in Paris for a two-day visit, French Prime Minister Francois Fillion confirmed once again that he had discussed the issue with his counterpart and added that the sale of a French-made warship to Russia would be done in “full respect of Georgia.” On his part, Putin underlined that Russia “has not taken a decision” on buying the Mistral but asserted that his country would use the new equipment “wherever it deems necessary,” an ambiguous statement that is certainly not going to ease worries in Georgia and Eastern European states, especially in the Baltic region.

Stricto sensu, the Mistral is more a multipurpose amphibious command ship able to provide command and control for fleet commanders in military missions than a warship with an offensive capacity, such as a frigate or aircraft carrier. It is an efficient ship for defending the sovereignty of a state and bringing relief when disasters hit anywhere in the world. It is built for supporting multinational monitoring operations or humanitarian actions. In short, the Mistral is an ideal tool for strategic crisis management and an instrument of influence and power projection.

The Mistral’s prowess is impressive. It has the following general technical spec: A 21,500-metric tonne (23,700-ton), 299-metre (980-foot) vessel capable of carrying 16 heavy or 35 light helicopters, 4 landing craft, 900 soldiers,70 military vehicles, including as many as 40 tanks; it is equipped with a 69-bed hospital; it can deploy four landing barges to put special forces ashore at great speed and on the most inaccessible shores; it is armed with two Simbad missile launchers and four 12.7mm M2-HB Browning machine guns; it has a high-precision navigation system along with integrated combat control systems; it is fit for missions intended to project a state’s power and intimidate its neighbours.

An important factor in Russia’s decision whether to purchase it or not (although all signs point towards a “done deal” at the moment) is that, unlike many of its competitors, the Mistral has already been tested in various civil and military missions around the world. In July 2006 a Mistral ship cruised the Mediterranean for the first time en route to Lebanon’s shores to protect, and if necessary evacuate, French citizens in Lebanon and Israel during the Israel-Lebanon war. In May 2007, US Navy MH-53E Sea Stallion and LCAC heavy helicopters landed on the French Mistral as members of the naval component of the NATO Response Force. At the start of 2008, Mistral was also involved in the Corymbe 92 Mission off Africa’s west coast.

In terms of cost-benefit analysis, the general opinion is that the Mistral ship seems to be a remarkable achievement. The French constructor DCNS, in partnership with Thales and Chantiers de l'Atlantique in the city of Saint-Nazaire, uses the modular construction method – pre-engineered building units, some located in Poland – which decreases the design and construction timeline by 30 to 50 percent. For that reason, Russians could get a new warship in about every three years. The operational cost of the Mistral is very low in comparative terms and it is available 330 days a year, an extremely high ratio in the navy. Also, the Sant-Nazaire shipbuilding site works according to civilian standards which are less stringent than the military’s. Finally, Russian media reports have said that a Mistral-class ship is estimated to cost between $738 million and $886 million. That’s half the price of a similar Spanish or Dutch command ship.

Understandably Georgian Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze and Georgian citizens in general feel threatened by these negotiations between Paris and Moscow and are demanding the immediate cancellation of the project. "Russia wants to restore its great power status by restoring its influence over former Soviet republics. The Mistral is a formidable assault boat to attack Georgia or the Baltics with,” said Vashadze. The Russians affirm that they plan to use the Mistral for their command operations in North Pacific. These ships should improve the Russian Northern and Pacific Fleets, claim Russian commanders. They could also be used to fight against pirates off the Somali coast. However, nothing prevents the Russians from transferring these ships to other seas and oceans.

Those who downplay the risk factor to ex-Soviet republics represented by such a sale to a non-NATO member like the current imperialistic Russia should know that the very motivation for buying these technological "jewels" is the frustration suffered by the Russian military and political authorities during the 2008 August War. The Russians realised quickly how they were ill-equipped to conduct large scale military operations not far from home. Russian shipbuilding has not gone through a modernisation process. For example in 2004 India signed a contract with Russia to purchase the Soviet-era Admiral Gorshkov refitted aircraft carrier. It is still waiting for delivery. The craft is two years late and the prospect of getting it before 2019 is very slim, even though Russia has almost doubled the price of its refurbishment.

Despite the Kremlin's military ambitions, the Russian Navy is currently performing its tasks with a decreasing number of big seaworthy ships and the shipbuilding industry, as all other Russan industries, has been roughly crippled by both the post-Soviet economic meltdown and the recent world financial crisis. Russia has only one aircraft carrier, the Soviet-built Admiral Kuznetsov, which is much smaller than any US aircraft carriers. Moreover, it has been plagued by mechanical problems and accidents. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Putin are clever enough to understand that Russian shipbuilders, even after pouring billions of rubles into the industry, would never be able to build cutting-edge battleships of the Mistral's calibre. There are no historical precedents for Russia matching Western quality in any industrial sector and the current situation offers absolutely no prospect of a turnaround in this respect. The Russian economy has been “withering” since the 1917 Russian Revolution.

Russia has a mid-term objective. By choosing to buy France’s ships instead of investing in its own shipbuilders, it can first of all potentially create a divide within the EU and NATO members, who are expected to contest such a controversial strategic move. Second, Russia wants to use these warships to protect the Baltic waters once the Nord Stream become operational in a few years time. Third, Russian high-quality ships cruising the Black Sea or the Baltic Sea would stop NATO’s enlargement toward the east and the Black Sea and allow Russia to renew control over what it considers its “backyard.”

Richard Rousseau, Ph.D. is Lecturer in International Relations at the University of Georgia