Life was never easy following the collapse of the Soviet Union among former Soviet countries. Only three (Baltic countries) were fortunate enough to enter the club of NATO and EU while others are still struggling to determine their own political fate. At best there are two exceptions, perhaps three – which includes Georgia.

Georgia as a fledging democracy seeks to set its own path for chosen, either alone or in a parallel track to course set by Baltic countries. When all is said and done, and regardless of political changes that may result upcoming local election four months from now or in the event of some other “not to easy predict” scenario, events that could lead to dramatic changes in running political power and relations with nearby countries, there is almost no chance that Georgians are going to return to “old good times” and link up the future only with the Russian Federation.

Already there are winds of change, as with the people of Ukraine will make their mark on the direction of that country in a run-off election on 7th of February as the two top presidential slug it out. Nonetheless, as who will be declared the winner, there are still high hopes and ample opportunities to stay on course with a western orientation, and not only in terms of joining NATO and EU aspirations. Democracy is the key for membership in these clubs and that is why it is paramount that Ukraine presents the semblance of having had free and fair elections and it will not be the repeat of earlier performance by many former Soviet countries with massive vote rigging.

It is paramount that at least two major factors be in place that will greatly contribute to keeping the train of process on track in Ukraine – there can be no screaming of foul by either over alleged vote box stuffing and that both international and local observers get the stamp of approval that indeed elections were fair. Ukraine has been able to bring about new presidents three times in the last 20 at the ballot box.

As for Russia, which some pundits claim does not have the desire or political will to be part of the Western world, continue to fights to be the centre of gravity in the neighbourhood. Much effort and resources have been devoted to this lost cause. The result is limited at best, and actually such actions does little other than to further alienate those in the neighbourhood, not to mention such attempts amount to a complete waste of time and limited resources. An already tainted reputation of Russia is further diminished by the various attempts at subterfuge and meddling in the political affairs of its neighbours.

As for other former Soviet countries, these are still cultural and historic bonds. Many problems remain and these are complication by political infighting. Naturally the economic toll is hardest on those on the economic fringes. As in Georgia, hundreds of thousands of citizens have left their homeland over the last two decades. Many ended up in Russia but now the migration has been slowed and Georgians are seeking opportunities in Europe and other destinations. Frankly, many highly education and skilled Georgians immigrated to Russia but there are still many remaining in Georgia. However, not all on the outbound train were the cream of the crop. The vast majority of high level criminals left Georgia in early 90’s as more fertile ground was to be found to make easy money in Russia. It is interesting to note that recently there was the second wave of flow of criminals to Russia after Mikhail Saakashvili came to power. There are currently no big underworld names freely walking about in Georgia. However, these shady Georgians have done much to contribute to the destruction of Georgia’s image among ordinary Russian citizens.

Ukrainian population have also been impacted because of its immigration to Russia in seeking jobs and other opportunities. Nonetheless, a significant percentage of ethnic Russians continue to live in Ukraine. It is highly likely that these ethnic and regional differences, from East to West Ukraine may in fact determine the outcome of the upcoming run-off presidential elections. Needless to say, it would have been much useful for strengthening democratic values if there was weak correlation between ethnic origin of the presidential candidates and their constituencies.

Ukraine and Georgia are two countries with shared values and close relations. The sources of their problems have often been one in the same. There have been better times in the not-so-recent past in the euphoric of Colour Revolutions. The only despicable feelings can be found on the soccer pitch where supporters of the opposing teams would like to cast a curse on the other. However, even now, this is a moot point in passing, due to the total collapse of Georgian soccer league.

In order to assess existing social and economic ties between the populace of Russia, Ukraine and Georgia, three research teams from among these respecting countries designed and fielded a survey questionnaire. The battery of questions was asked in nationwide opinion surveys. The fieldwork in Russia was conducted by ROMIR, Research & Branding Group collected data in Ukraine and GORBI was in charge of Georgian part of the project. A total of 1500 Russians, 2000 Ukrainians and 1000 Georgians were interviewed during the fieldwork which was conducted at the end of 2009.

The survey revealed that a significant social connection between these three countries continues to exist. Two out of five citizens in Ukraine and Georgia have either relatives or friends in Russia, whereas every fifth Russian has the same ties among ex Soviet countries (see chart 1).


Chart 1: Percentage of those who has “relatives or familiars that live in Russia. Note: Russians were asked if they had relatives or familiar persons living in former Soviet republics.

 

Interestingly, a little more then half (54%) of Ukrainians and 35% of Georgians have 5 or more persons, either as friends and relatives who resided in the Russian Federation.



Chart 2. Assessment of the quality of life: Question: How the lives of people in your country and in Russia differ?) Note: Russians were asked the same question but about those residing in former Soviet countries.
  
   


Majority of Ukrainian respondents assess the quality of life in Russia as being better that what exists in Ukraine. In addition, the majority of Russians believe that life in Russia is better than what exists in other former Soviet countries. At the same time, 47% of Georgians believe that the level of life is better in Georgia than what it is in the Russian Federation. Moreover, those Georgians who have no personal relationship with Russia still assess the level of life in Georgia as being better.

Continuous political clashes between Russia and Georgia/Ukraine have brought about a greater degree of alienation among the populace. Today, only one in ten, in Ukraine and Georgia, considers that after having gained independence, the relationship between their respective nations towards Russians actually improved. Whereas, nearly two-thirds of Georgians (65%) believe that relationship between Georgians and Russians over the last 20 years has actually deteriorated. Meanwhile, with respect to the shared attitude in this regard, Russians and Ukrainians are far more moderate, 31% and 25% respectively (see Chart 3).


Chart 3: State of relationship between average people




Overall, which does not come as any surprise, economic conditions in all three countries were assessed as bad by the majority of population. The dire state of the economy is rather evident sharply in Ukraine, where just over 9 out of 10 respondents are dissatisfied. In terms of positive assessment, Georgians appear to be more satisfied with economic conditions than are their Russian and Ukrainian peers, 29%, 25% and 9% respectively (see chart 4).



Chart 4: Assessment of economic conditions









In conclusion, strong personal relationship exists on an individual level among these countries; however, things are more dismal on the political front. All that can be done is being done to destroy future prospect for closer human relations between those living in these countries. As for now, and in spite of all good intentions and high expectations, there appears to be no light at the end of the tunnel for the immediate future.