Lukashenko Keeps Us Guessing On Recognition

President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia and President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus met for more than three hours in Sochi on Thursday afternoon to discuss issues affecting bilateral ties. 

The Russian media had reported beforehand that among the issues to be discussed during Thursday’s talks was Russia’s desire for Belarus to recognise the Georgian separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia has regarded the two regions as ‘sovereign states’, independent of Tbilisi, since the August war last year and is providing military support for self-styled Presidents Sergey Baghapsh and Eduard Kokoity so they can defend themselves against an alleged Georgian ‘military threat.’ Belarus has expressed sympathy with the two unrecognised states (declared “Russian-occupied territories” by the Georgian Parliament a year ago), but has stopped short of recognising them itself. The only country apart from Russia to grant full recognition to the two separatist regions has been the Republic of Nicaragua, under President Daniel Ortega.

Late on Thursday the official Belarus Government press agency BelTA released a statement from President Lukashenko, who said that all items the sides had actually proposed to discuss – “finance, economy, diplomacy and foreign policy” – had been. “In the near future we will make decisions that may resolve the economic and political problems that exist today between our two nations,” said Lukashenko. BelTA suggested that these decisions would concern customs duties on oil entering Belarus, a much-desired loan from Russia, cooperation on the construction of a nuclear plant to be built near Belarus’ border with Lithuania and joint financial measures which will be undertaken to lessen the damage of the ongoing economic crisis. No specific mention was made of any decision concerning the separatist states, which were held during President Lukashenko’s annual vacation.

Over the summer Belarus has had difficulties with Russia, largely caused by Minsk’s deferral of the decision to recognise Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia has denied Belarus much-needed loans for the continuation of social programmes and boycotted its dairy and meat products for supposed “sanitary documentation” reasons. Russia has denied there is any connection between these boycotts and its desire to see Belarus recognise the two separatist regions.

The Moscow Times also suggested on Thursday that the European Union may have inadvertently prompted the Belarus President to revisit the recognition issue by insisting on political reforms in return for Western economic aid, reforms that, according to Vladimir Zharikhin of the CIS Institute in Moscow, could end Lukashenko’s Presidency. The social programmes for which the Lukashenko regime is trying to secure funding are also important for his political survival, as they are seen as the basis of his popularity among Belarus voters. Russia Today further suggested that these bilateral talks were in fact the direct result of recommendations made in Minsk by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Phillip Gordon, who urged that Belarus “release political prisoners, loosen its control of the mass media and non-governmental organisations and hold free Presidential elections.” The immediate response, according to Russia Today, was Lukashenko accepting Medvedev’s invitation to meet him in Sochi.

Over the summer, Belarus has attempted to maintain a stance independent of either Russia or the West over its relations with Georgia, firstly by insisting that Belarusians obey Georgian law in the separatist regions to avoid being detained and secondly by expressing regret over Georgia’s withdrawal from the Commonwealth of Independent States during its meeting in Minsk, saying that “Time will pass, and probably Georgia will return to the Commonwealth. We would welcome this step. Everyone, including Russia.” After Belarusian citizens were detained earlier this year when stamps issued by the separatist Government of Abkhazia were found in their passports, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus advised its citizens to avoid entering either Abkhazia or South Ossetia from Russia. This warning was praised by Georgia but condemned by Russia, both sides saying that it indicated that Belarus recognised Georgia’s authority over these regions. The Belarus Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Minsk responded by saying that Minsk had not declared a formal position on the separatist regimes, and that its main concern in issuing the statement was the avoidance of further detention and imprisonment of Belarus citizens under Georgian law.

At the end of Thursday’s talks, Medvedev and Lukashenko announced through their Governments’ news agencies that the two countries will carry out a series of follow-up meetings to resolve ongoing differences between them. The first will take place on September 29 during the West 2009 military exercises at Sochi. The second will be in the form of a separate Russian-Belarus conference during the Eurasian Economic Community Interstate Council summit in Minsk on Nov. 27. The third will take the form of the scheduled Supreme Council of the Russia-Belarus Union in December. 
The Russia-Belarus Union was established in 1996, early in President Lukashenko’s term, and has been a source of political inspiration for at least South Ossetia. Last week South Ossetian leader Kokoity told the Governments of Russia and Belarus that his region would be willing to join the Union; last year, Kokoity similarly announced that South Ossetia would eventually become part of the Russian Federation, an announcement he later retracted after Russian officials strenuously denied this was possible. President Lukashenko has not yet responded to Kokoity’s latest suggestion.